Content
- CHARITY BETS
- Value Bet tips: Saturday, December 23
- The nine attributes that make City of Troy so special
- Novices’ Hurdle result
- Futurity Trophy Weekend 6f Handicap Trends
- Coral Cup result
- Presenting Percy goes off as favourite in the 2.10
- Durbanville Tips
- Man Utd CONFIRM Ruben Amorim as new manager days after sacking Ten Hag
- Cheltenham Festival Handicap Chase Micro System
- Wolverhampton Tips
- Grand National
- Horse Racing Tips: Timeform’s Thursday Newcastle shouts include a 10/1 fancy
All of the last 16 winners had raced at least once since the start of Newbury’s Coral Cup Handicap Chase meeting the previous November. Among the British challengers, Teeshan from Paul Nicholls’ yard showed promise with a victory at Exeter last month, while Ben Pauling’s Sixmilebridge impressed on his stable debut at Sandown. Though primarily seen as a hurdling prospect for the future, Sixmilebridge shouldn’t be overlooked in this race. Willie Mullins fields the favourite, Jasmin De Vaux, who showcased promise with a victory at Naas on his stable debut in January.
CHARITY BETS
Master Chewy is a bit of a punt but, if ridden patiently, he might be able to pick up the pieces… And if they go a million on the front then he could just nick the whole enchilada. Of course, he’s priced as though he has little chance and that may be how it transpires.
- The Flat jockeys’ championship takes winners of both Flat and all-weather races taking place from the start of the Guineas meeting at Newmarket (May 4, 2024) and runs until British Champions Day at Ascot (October 19, 2024).
- “The foot (Monday’s infection) was nothing,” said a beaming Henderson.
- For a horse with a lot of placed efforts to his name, he kept going strongly to win by three and a quarter lengths from the Wathnan Racing-owned duo of Haunted Dream and Torito.
- Cross-referencing with some of the more well-established bookies will help to confirm that you are indeed getting a good deal for your money’s worth.
- In the possibly the most open Derby in recent memory, you can give a chance to almost all the runners.
- State Man last year and this year’s Arkle 3rd Saint Roi 2 years ago.
- We do also display win and place percentages but, in truth, these are the equivalent of answering the question, “What time is it?”, with “Tuesday afternoon”.
- Percentage of Rivals Beaten (PRB) is a means of applying a sliding scale of merit to every finishing position, and doing it in relation to the field size in which that finish was achieved.
- Dropped 2lb in the weights this time around, there could be some each-way mileage in his big price, returning to this circuit.
Value Bet tips: Saturday, December 23
O’Connor has been a fine rider over the years but there are no weak links in the riding line-up here, and this race ought to go to the best horse at the trip, pure and simple. The National Hunt Chase has changed markedly in Bolts Up Daily character since gaining Grade 2 status and being shortened in trip. In some ways that’s a shame, but the farrago of the 2019 running where the few who finished were legless was a pathetic last hurrah for the race of old.
The nine attributes that make City of Troy so special
I thought he was very impressive that day at Cork and with this race being in similar conditions I’m expecting a similar performance. It was disappointing to see him beaten at odds-on last time out at Clonmel but it looked a tactical small field race off a steady pace which wouldn’t have suited him, and I think he was done for a bit of toe up the straight. The Mare’s Chase is being billed as a match this year and while I do think both Allegoire De Vassy and Imprevious are brilliant mares, I think the market has overlooked MAGIC DAZE.
- She won this race 12 months ago and is back from a 3lb higher mark with every chance again.
- Corach Rambler won the race last year and will again be played late; he was much the best that day and is only six pounds higher now.
- He has a chance, for sure, but is of no great interest at around 2/1 given his imperfect preparation.
- Galvin may still be improving but 5/1 readily acknowledges that.
- Earlier on the programme, CHECKANDCHALLENGE can keep Will Buick’s in-form run going in the Group 3 Bonhams Thoroughbred Stakes (2.25).
- But that Leopardstown race is contested over almost three miles and, as the name suggests, it was contested at the end of last year.
Novices’ Hurdle result
All the talk’s about Altior with less than 15 minutes left until the big race of the day. Late change of jockey in the Fred Winter Handicap Hurdle. Davy Russell has been stood down for the day after his fall from Bless The Wings in the Glenfarclas Cross Country Chase. 33/1 Veneer of Charm wins well to make it a treble in the afternoon for Gordon Elliot.
Futurity Trophy Weekend 6f Handicap Trends
Going a step further, I’d favour run style over draw in certain scenarios which I’ll come on to. And I’d especially favour a horse from a wide gate with an ostensibly uncontested lead. A wide-open renewal of this race, but it is still very hard to get away from GOOBINATOR. Donald McCain’s 5-year-old finished 4th in the Cesarewitch behind Buzz at Newmarket last month, beaten 8-lengths and on that evidence, he looks to be exceptionally well-handicapped on a mark of 126 over hurdles. He won under Brian Hughes at Ayr last October, on the same mark as he can race off today and he looks to have a favourites chance.
Coral Cup result
For a horse with a lot of placed efforts to his name, he kept going strongly to win by three and a quarter lengths from the Wathnan Racing-owned duo of Haunted Dream and Torito. “He’s taking on the older horses, the best sprinters in the world, and he’s held his own against them. He’s only going to improve on that as he gets older, I’m very pleased with the run.
Presenting Percy goes off as favourite in the 2.10
My Mate Mozzie was only a length and a half behind Found A Fifty but hasn’t raced this year, and his best form looks to be on better ground. Mistergif led on his sole Irish start though that was a maiden hurdle only, while Tullyhill has led the last twice. Firefox has also led in two of his last three, likewise Tellherthename. Even to fast looks the most likely pace setup on the scant evidence we have. Mystical Power runs in the green and gold of JP McManus, but is co-owned by Susannah Ricci and Mrs John Magnier.
Durbanville Tips
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Man Utd CONFIRM Ruben Amorim as new manager days after sacking Ten Hag
The third and fifth from the Betfair finished 1-2 in the Imperial Cup at the weekend so that form looks solid. In between times, Iberico Lord was well beaten at Ascot and perhaps it was a combination of the slower pace and faster turf that did for him. It should be at least a little bit softer here but whether there’s much pace in the race remains to be seen. Whilst he’s obviously progressive, he’s got about a stone and a half to find on official ratings if the favourite runs to within a pound or three of his mark. He’d previously been only 1 1/2 lengths behind Stay Away Fay on softer ground at Sandown where he travelled strongly through the race before being continously hampered by a loose horse around the 3rd last fence. He still cruised upside the eventual winner as the pair jumped the last and kept on nicely up the run in but wasn’t quite able to keep a straight line and keep tabs with Stay Away Fay in the last 100 yards.
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- Most likely is that the top two in the betting will mark each other behind the rags, with Vauban expected to be ridden cold at the back of the field.
- He has not been disgraced since, but the drop back to six furlongs looks a good move.
- Cast back to 2020, and a six-year-old Epatante was winning the Blue Riband while forty minutes later Honeysuckle, also six, was winning this race.
- But the son of Vadamos came out on top that day, and has repeated the feat in one-mile contests on three of his six subsequent starts.
- Over fences, she’s one from three so far and she lacks obvious upside to my eye.
Each way is not an option in a seven-runner race generally, still less with such a domineering jolly; but ‘without the favourite’ is a way in. That market has its own shortie, too, in State Man but I feel Vauban ‘without’ is a credible alternative given how the race is likely to pan out. If State Man and Constitution Hill have at it from far enough out, it’s possible that SM cracks; Vauban wasn’t far behind him in steadily enough run G1’s in Ireland and can come through for silver. The first chase of the week is a speed test for novices, and frequently advertises the claims of a potential Champion Chaser of the near future.
Horses that raced outside Graded/Listed company have a poor record. The graph illustrates a clear upwards trajectory with the last four years averaging out at just under 20 per meeting (19.5 to be precise). Essentially this means that around 70% of all races in the past four years have had an Irish-trained favourite. Compare this to the first five years (2008 to 2012) where the average was 7.4. My main focus will be looking at the data as a whole – market factors, last time out (LTO) factors, etc.
Hovering over the coloured blobs in the ‘Race Speed vs Par’ column (title unhelpfully obscured in the image above), shows the sectional percentages for our OMC (Opening / Mid-race / Closing) format. Identifying front runners is is a challenge, but these tables articulate unequivocally why it is worth our time to attempt that act of clairvoyance. Geegeez Pace Maps, available for every race, assist considerably with the challenge. Day 2 of the Cheltenham festival has been equally as magical as day 1, as we really have been treated to some incredible action. The best meetings are broadcast on either ITV or ITV4, with racing broadcast every single Saturday afternoon, plus lots of big festival meetings (like the famous Cheltenham Festival in March) which are staged through the week.
So the Irish are sending more runners than they did more than a decade ago, and are winning on average more often. LH – Worried about Mighty Potter potentially not handling the travel/prelims again after last year. Could be different story this time but he has to overcome that and is very short in the betting considering. Banbridge is more straightforward and Balco Coastal is interesting at a bigger price, too.
Horse racing tips: Gary Moore’s charge can gain revenge after falling last time out
So far he’s been beaten in two maidens before getting off the mark in a third such race, and that doesn’t fit with this race. To help you make your selection, you can access more information by clicking on the horse’s name on both today’s and tomorrow’s racecards. This will cause the horse’s information to slide out with all the key details. Jockey and trainer are obviously crucial, along with age and weight.